Thursday, October 4, 2007

"Irrational exuberance" back home?

Here is what scares me about the Indian markets, which have been on an absolute tear over the last 4 years and I'm talking doubling your money in a year kind of gains just by investing in the Sensex - amazing!

The scary part.....

1) Everyone's talking about stocks and dishing out tips (even at kid's birthday parties)
2) Sharply dressed 20 year old financial "advisors" are a dime a dozen and Mutual Fund houses are offering new "hot" funds every other day
3) The art of picking stocks has gotten easy - since everything has been going UP
4) TV channels are abuzz about the bubble (sorry - India growth story) and now we have official headcounts of dollar millionaires.
5) How can we ignore/neglect the infrastructure/corruption/poverty issues that India has to deal with going forward

My personal take on the situation is yes, Indian markets are at an all-time high right now and if I were to put fresh money to work at this point, I would hesitate.

BUT, that being said - I do believe in the growth story of India and 10 years from now, I think the SENSEX will be much higher than what it is today - so if you are a long term investor (as you should be) and can handle some volatility (I have personally seen my India portfolio take a 30% hit in one month - only to bounce back in the next couple of months) investing in India is a good option.

I'll keep the "how to invest in India" for later.

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